Novo Nordisk: I Was Wrong Twice, But This Sell‑off Looks Like 2016 All Over Again

You ever have that gut‑punch moment where you stare at your portfolio, double‑check the ticker symbol, refresh the chart twice, and whisper to yourself: this can’t be right? Yeah, that was me last week, watching Novo Nordisk implode like someone pulled the plug out of a billion‑dollar bathtub. Twenty‑plus percent down in a single day, thirty‑something percent down in a week. For a stock that was supposed to be the crown jewel of obesity treatment? That’s not just a red day. That’s a bloodbath.

And here’s the thing—I’ll admit it, I was wrong. Not once. Twice. That’s right. The guy who told everyone Novo was bulletproof, who laughed at every bearish report, and who smugly repeated “GLP‑1s are the future” like it was gospel? Yeah, I’m eating crow, with a side of humble pie, washed down with tears of regret.

The first time I was wrong, it was because I underestimated operational risk. I saw those sky‑high margins, the Wegovy and Ozempic hype, and thought, what could possibly go wrong? Spoiler alert: a lot. Compounded drugs, generics eating into the U.S. market, manufacturing constraints—they all piled on like a bad hangover. Then came the second mistake: I dismissed Eli Lilly. Big mistake. While I was busy chanting Novo’s praises, Lilly rolled up with Zepbound and Mounjaro, flexed its clinical data, and started eating Novo’s lunch.

But here’s the kicker—this sell‑off feels familiar. It feels like déjà vu. It feels like 2016 all over again. Remember 2016? When insulin pricing pressure had investors running for the exits, Novo tanked, and everyone wrote it off as a has‑been? And yet, the company clawed its way back, pipeline successes kicked in, and long‑term investors laughed all the way to the bank. The current situation? It’s got the same smell: fear, panic, and oversold charts.

So what triggered this crash? Guidance cuts. The magic words no investor wants to hear. Sales growth expectations sliced down from 13–21% to 8–14%. Operating profit growth dropped from 16–24% to 10–16%. Translation: the gravy train slowed down, and Wall Street doesn’t forgive slowdowns. Add in compounded GLP‑1 drugs undercutting prices and regulators breathing down pharma’s neck, and boom—the perfect storm.

And then there’s the leadership change. Lars Fruergaard Jorgensen stepped down, and Maziar Mike Doustdar took over just days before the meltdown. The timing couldn’t have been worse. Markets hate uncertainty, and a new CEO amid collapsing guidance is the textbook definition of uncertainty. Investors started whispering: is this guy ready? Does he have a plan? Or is he just going to rearrange deck chairs on a sinking ship?

Now, here’s where the parallels with 2016 get spooky. Back then, it was insulin pricing pressure. Now, it’s GLP‑1 competition. In both cases, guidance was slashed, sentiment tanked, and technical indicators went into the oversold abyss. And just like in 2016, analysts who once called it a strong buy are now hedging with lukewarm “buy” ratings, sprinkled with caveats like “for patient investors only.” Déjà vu much?

But this isn’t just nostalgia for old crashes. The fundamentals still matter. Back in 2016, Novo had Tresiba and Victoza waiting in the wings, ready to revive growth. Today, the company has oral Wegovy, amycretin, and a slate of obesity and heart failure treatments in the pipeline. The company still boasts a 35% operating margin—even after this mess—and obesity treatments are projected to grow at a staggering 43% CAGR through 2034. That’s not the profile of a company circling the drain. That’s the profile of a company going through a nasty reset.

Of course, it’s not all sunshine and rainbows. Let’s not kid ourselves. The risks are real, and they’re sharp. There’s a U.S. class‑action lawsuit alleging Novo misled investors about forecast risks. Pricing pressure from the government is ramping up—Trump’s administration is practically drooling over the idea of forcing drug price parity with other nations. Competitive disadvantages are glaring: Lilly’s products have the edge in efficacy perception, and physicians are flocking to their side. And with compounded GLP‑1 drugs flooding the market, Novo’s pricing power isn’t what it used to be.

So where does that leave investors? Well, if you’ve got diamond hands, this might be your chance. The technicals are screaming oversold. Support levels at $36 and $29 could hold, and if history repeats itself, buying now could pay off big down the road. But if you’re risk‑averse or allergic to volatility, maybe sit this one out and wait for stabilization. Because right now, this stock is a rollercoaster, and you better have a strong stomach to ride it.

Personally? I see opportunity here. Yes, I was wrong twice. Yes, I underestimated the storm. But storms pass. And when they do, the companies with strong fundamentals, robust pipelines, and dominant market positions usually come out stronger. Novo has all of that—plus a history of proving doubters wrong. Will it be a smooth ride? Absolutely not. But will it be worth it for the long‑term investor? I believe so.

At the end of the day, the 2025 sell‑off might just be another 2016 moment—painful, terrifying, and yet, in hindsight, a golden entry point. So while I lick my wounds from being wrong twice, I’m keeping my eyes on the bigger picture. Because if history really does rhyme, this crash might be the setup for Novo’s next big run.