Archer Aviation: Unlikely To Be Stuck At $10 For Much Longer

byTony Hicks -
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If you think Archer Aviation (NYSE: ACHR) is destined to loiter around ten bucks forever, you’re betting against a rare alignment of catalysts: a near-finished regulatory checklist, visible manufacturing progress, real customers with checks actually clearing soon, and marquee events designed to showcase the aircraft in front of the world. That cocktail doesn’t guarantee a moonshot (this is still hardware + aviation + regulation), but it does tilt the odds away from “permanently range-bound.”

Below I’ll lay out the “why,” the “when,” and the “what could break,” so you can calibrate your expectations beyond the meme-ish “air taxis tomorrow” narrative.

The short version (for the impatient)

  • Archer’s regulatory runway is unusually clear for an eVTOL startup. It already holds Part 135 (air carrier), Part 145 (maintenance), and Part 141 (pilot training school) approvals, leaving Part 142 (training centers) and the big prize—Midnight’s type certificate and a production certificate—as the remaining milestones before scaled service. These aren’t hypotheticals; they’re documented FAA steps Archer has already banked. Archer Aviation+2Archer Aviation+2Aviation International News

  • The checkbook is open. Archer exited Q2 FY2025 with roughly $1.7–$1.72 billion in cash and equivalents—four straight quarters of record liquidity—after additional capital raised this year. That is real fuel to finish certification, build aircraft, and bridge to initial revenue. Q4 CapitalYahoo FinanceSeeking Alpha

  • Production is no longer a slide deck. Six Midnight aircraft are on the line, with multiple units in final assembly across California and the new factory in Covington, Georgia; the company targeted two aircraft per month by the end of 2025 as it loads tooling and scales the ARC facility. Aviation International NewsDefence BlogArcher Aviation

  • Commercialization is moving from MOUs to milestones. Archer has begun test flights in Abu Dhabi, expects initial commercial payments later in 2025 under its “Launch Edition” with Abu Dhabi Aviation, and unveiled a New York air-taxi network plan with United Airlines. Business WireArcher Aviation+1Reuters

  • Showtime is booked. Archer is slated as the official air-taxi provider for the LA28 Olympics—an enormous brand and usage stage if the aircraft are certified and flying on time. AP News

  • Wall Street is watching the same movie. After Q2’s bigger-than-expected loss, the stock rose into the close as analysts reiterated Buy ratings and pointed to liquidity and visible progress; price targets cluster above $10. Barron's

So no, ACHR doesn’t have to rip tomorrow. But the idea it’s “stuck at $10” ignores an unusual 12–18 month window where multiple value-unlock levers can be pulled almost in sequence.

The state of play: where Archer actually is today

Regulatory checklist: Archer’s strategy has been to de-risk operations before type certification, so that once the aircraft is certified, the operational plumbing exists to turn on service. It achieved:

  • Part 145 maintenance certification (Feb 2024)

  • Part 135 air carrier certificate (June 2024)

  • Part 141 pilot training school (Feb 2025) and is pursuing Part 142 next

This trifecta lets Archer train pilots under an FAA-recognized program, operate as an air carrier (initially with conventional aircraft while Midnight is certifying), and maintain aircraft in-house—key to lowering early-stage friction and cost. The FAA also issued final airworthiness criteria for Midnight in May 2024, which is the formal blueprint for type certification testing. Archer Aviation+2Archer Aviation+2Aviation International News+1

Manufacturing: Archer completed its Covington, Georgia factory build-out with a plan to ramp production, and as of mid-August 2025, six Midnight aircraft were in various stages of assembly, with three in final assembly. That’s small-batch, yes—but it’s what conforming test fleets and early commercial units look like in regulated aerospace. Archer AviationAviation International NewsDefence Blog

Cash & runway: The company’s Q2 FY2025 shareholder letter pegs cash and equivalents at ~$1.724B, after incremental raises earlier this year. That’s “finish certification + early fleet” money, not shoestring survival capital. Q4 Capital

Commercial bridges:

  • UAE / Abu Dhabi: Archer signed definitive agreements, delivered its first Midnight into the UAE program, started test flights at Al Bateen, and guided to initial commercial payments later in 2025—a crucial shift from zero revenue to some revenue. Archer AviationBusiness Wire

  • United Airlines / New York: Archer and United laid out a Manhattan–airport network (e.g., to Newark, LGA/JFK) that makes intuitive sense for eVTOL economics (short, repeatable, premium-value hops). This isn’t a binding schedule, but it signals where early U.S. usage clusters could materialize post-certification. Reuters

Platform moments: Being named the LA28 Olympics air-taxi provider is as much about proof-of-execution as marketing. If Archer is flying safely and reliably by then, this becomes the largest mass-market demo the category has ever seen. AP News

Why “around $10” isn’t a steady-state valuation

Stocks pin to round numbers when the market has no near-term reason to re-rate the story. Archer’s next 6–18 months are loaded with reasons.

1) The production certificate & type certificate stair-step

Two big gating items remain: (i) type certification for Midnight and (ii) an FAA production certificate so the factory can deliver certified aircraft at scale. The good news: the FAA has now clarified powered-lift rules, and Archer locked its G-1 certification basis years ago and has been building conforming test articles—reducing regulatory ambiguity. Once a production certificate is issued (even provisionally), the market tends to move eVTOL developers out of “science project” land and into “aerospace OEM with a queue.” Aviation International News+1Archer Aviation

Why it moves the stock: There are only a handful of credible eVTOL OEMs. Each step that narrows execution risk expands the pool of investors willing to underwrite a multi-year cash curve. Even a partial PC nod could justify a valuation lift if it unlocks delivery confidence for 2026–2027 volumes.

2) First dollars in the door (UAE)

Archer expects initial commercial payments from Abu Dhabi later in 2025, tied to the “Launch Edition” program with Abu Dhabi Aviation. It’s not yet fleet-scale revenue, but it breaks the zero and validates the commercial model outside press releases. Early payments plus continued test flights under UAE conditions (heat, dust, humidity) demonstrate both demand and operational readiness. Archer Aviation+1Business Wire

Why it moves the stock: There’s a yawning valuation gap between “pre-revenue futurism” and “we charge customers and get paid.” Crossing that line changes how sell-side models are framed and how PMs benchmark peers (e.g., Joby) on price-to-forward-sales.

3) The LA28 and New York “distribution”

Archer’s LA28 role and the United-backed New York plan are distribution levers masquerading as PR. They seed reliable, high-yield corridors (Olympic venues, airport-to-city hops) where eVTOL economics can work earliest. If Archer hits certification timelines, the visibility of usage creates a demand anchor—and an easier story for partnerships with cities and airports. AP NewsReuters

Why it moves the stock: Investors can model routes, turns per day, and utilization—not just theoretical TAMs. That makes discounted cash flow less hand-wavy and multiple-based comparisons less speculative.

The balance sheet: why the cash pile matters

Hardware startups die two ways: regulatory attrition or balance-sheet hypoxia. Archer’s ~$1.7B cash and a pattern of opportunistic raises (including a February equity raise and earlier institutional participation) give it oxygen through the most expensive, non-revenue stretch of its lifecycle. This is exactly when you want more cash than you need. Q4 CapitalYahoo Finance

Analysts noticed. Following Q2’s headline loss, shares actually closed higher as the street emphasized liquidity, the six aircraft in production, and near-term commercialization steps; buy-rated targets are clustered in the teens. The point isn’t that price targets are gospel—it’s that sell-side skepticism is not the bottleneck anymore; execution is. Barron's

Manufacturing reality check (and why Georgia matters)

Midnight isn’t a science fair project; it’s a regulated five-seat aircraft (pilot + four) that must be built repeatably and maintained by the book. That’s why Covington, Georgia’s ARC facility matters: it’s co-located with an airport for efficient flight ops and is designed to scale from early units toward dozens per year on the way to hundreds. Archer completed the building, began tooling load-in, and has since moved to multi-unit final assembly—the essential choreography before a production certificate audit. Archer AviationAviation International News

What to watch: FAA production certificate inspections (already underway per industry reporting), the quality system maturity (supplier approvals, MRB processes, traceability), and the first conforming aircraft entering certification testing. Each tick becomes a headline—and a de-risking point. Defence Blog

Route economics: where Midnight makes sense first

  • Airport connectors (NYC, LAX): 6–20 mile hops that dodge traffic, priced at a premium to ride-share but below helicopter fares. With quick turns and short charging windows, the aircraft can rack up daily cycles—the lifeblood of utilization economics. Reuters

  • Event clusters (LA28): predictable, time-sensitive demand spikes between pre-defined nodes (stadiums, hotels, airports). Operationally simpler: fewer sites, controlled security perimeters, easier public safety coordination. AP News

  • Tourism + first/last-mile business travel (UAE): premium corridors with supportive regulators and infrastructure partners—a playground for polishing ops before wider U.S. deployment. Business Wire

This is why “stuck at $10 forever” is a weak thesis: Archer isn’t betting on an instant, citywide, all-weather network on day one. It’s sequencing: narrow routes, controlled nodes, high-visibility partners. That’s how new transport modes claw into habit.

Competitive landscape (and why the pie is big enough for more than one)

Yes, Joby may be a step ahead in some aspects, and you’ll see narratives saying “Joby first, Archer second.” But in regulated, multi-hub mobility, second doesn’t mean “also-ran.” Airlines share routes. Railways share tracks. If Archer certifies Midnight, earns a production certificate, and opens a couple of high-volume corridors (NYC, LA, UAE), investors will value it as a real operator, not as a prototype factory. Meanwhile, Archer has defense adjacency and ongoing AFWERX ties that broaden non-civil revenue options—useful when ramping civil networks takes time. Archer Aviation

Risks (and how they could still pin the stock)

Let’s be adults about it; aviation is hard:

  1. Certification timing slip: If type certification or the production certificate drifts materially, “first revenue later in 2025” slides. Even a modest delay can reset impatient expectations and keep the stock range-bound. The FAA is clarifying powered-lift rules, but sequential audits and test-point clearance always take longer than glossy timelines. Aviation International News

  2. Supply chain & quality systems: One non-conformance in a safety-critical component can ripple across a fledgling line. Early aviation production is a masterclass in humility.

  3. Infrastructure & community acceptance: Vertiports, charging, and local buy-in can bottleneck otherwise “ready” aircraft. Airport routes help, but scaling beyond a few nodes requires city-scale cooperation.

  4. Capital markets complacency: Archer has cash now. But if the market suddenly demands profitability today, or if macro turns against early-stage hardware, multiples can compress, and raise windows can shut (even if Archer doesn’t need near-term cash).

  5. High-profile incident risk: Any aircraft mishap grabs headlines, fair or not. The best mitigation is over-investment in testing and conservative early operations.

The upside path: what unlocks a sustained re-rating

Think of Archer’s next year as a ladder. Each rung adds holders and shrinks the “it’s a science project” discount.

  1. Production certificate (interim steps included): Signals that the FAA likes what it sees in Covington’s quality systems and traceability. Even a strong interim inspection update can move sentiment. Defence Blog

  2. Type certification milestones & conforming test results: As the FAA signs off on test cards tied to Midnight’s final airworthiness criteria, the probability distribution on “when” tightens. Archer AviationAviation International News

  3. UAE commercial payments: Archer says “later in 2025.” Once those hit, models flip from zero to non-zero revenue, and program credibility rises. Archer Aviation

  4. Route-specific agreements in NYC / LA with dates: Even pre-revenue, firmed-up operating windows and infrastructure readiness are valuation grease. ReutersAP News

  5. Analyst estimate revisions: The Street has already shown a willingness to look through quarterly burn when liquidity is strong and milestones are visible; a couple more concrete catalysts and estimates should step higher. Barron's

If Archer executes 2–3 of those rungs within the next 12 months, “$10” looks more like a transitory consolidation than a fair value anchor.

What the market just told you after Q2

Archer posted a larger-than-expected operating loss—normally the kind of headline that slaps a developmental hardware stock. Instead, the shares finished up as investors weighed $1.7B liquidity, six aircraft in production, and UAE commercialization steps more heavily than the quarter’s expense line. That is a change in market posture—from “show me” to “okay, I see it; now deliver.” Barron's

It also suggests the “ceiling” at $10 is really just a congestion zone while the next hard catalyst forms. Congestion zones are not prisons.

The Stellantis & United angles: manufacturing muscle, demand spine

  • Stellantis has been more than a friendly logo; the relationship underpins scale manufacturing ambitions (tools, processes, capital), with earlier disclosures outlining contract manufacturing support and capital contributions to help ramp Midnight toward hundreds of units annually. That is exactly the kind of partner an aerospace upstart needs to industrialize. Archer Aviation

  • United Airlines isn’t just a marquee name—it’s a distribution network with loyalty economics, airport relationships, and a use case (airport connectors) Archer can slot into. United has publicly backed Archer’s progress and collaborated on a New York network vision. Business InsiderReuters

Partnerships don’t fly airplanes by themselves, but they do shorten the go-to-market maze.

Scenario math (plain-English edition)

I’m not going to pretend anyone can precisely DCF a category that hasn’t launched at scale. But you can build sensible ranges based on turns/day, available seats, load factors, and price/seat.

  • A single busy route (e.g., EWR ↔ Manhattan) with, say, 8–12 turns/day/aircraft, 4 seats, and a fare that undercuts helicopters but beats Uber Black, can push daily revenue per aircraft into the low–mid five figures even at modest load factors. Multiply by a small fleet and a couple routes, and you get seven-figure monthly revenue before broader network effects kick in. (The goal here is directional plausibility, not precision.)

  • UAE early payments bridge to per-flight revenue while systems mature. That staged commercialization lowers the cliff-edge risk at U.S. launch. Archer Aviation

The important point: small numbers can matter in a market pricing Archer as pre-revenue. The first $10–$30 million is existentially different from $0, because it validates the machine: pilots, maintenance, ops, turnaround times, and customer willingness to pay.

What could still keep it around $10 (or lower)

  • If type certification or PC slips meaningfully and the UAE dollars don’t hit in 2025, the “show me” posture returns.

  • If a competitor demonstrably outflanks Archer on certification and operational use (not just press), holders might prefer the other ticker for exposure.

  • If macro squeezes capital and “profit now” becomes the only religion, the whole eVTOL cohort could compress, irrespective of Archer’s milestones.

Those are real risks. But they’re also known risks—and increasingly, timed risks. In markets, timed risks trade differently than open-ended ones.

The telltale dates & headlines to watch (bookmark these)

  1. FAA production-certificate inspection updates out of Covington (quality/traceability milestones). Defence Blog

  2. Type certification test-point clearances under the FAA’s final airworthiness criteria. Archer Aviation

  3. UAE: initial commercial payments received and expansion of test-flight envelope at Al Bateen. Archer AviationBusiness Wire

  4. United/NYC infrastructure announcements with timelines (heliport upgrades, vertiport ops, permitting). Reuters

  5. LA28 ops planning progress (site maps, flight corridors, operating partners for security/emergency integration). AP News

  6. Quarterly liquidity staying comfortably above $1B until revenue ramps. Q4 Capital

Each checkmark shrinks the “stuck” thesis.

A final word on sentiment

The week Archer reported Q2 FY2025, the headlines weren’t great—larger-than-expected losses will always spook a few traders. But the stock closed up as the buy-side looked through the P&L to cash, production, UAE checks, and visible 2025–2026 catalysts. That’s not euphoria. That’s risk repricing. Barron's

If you’re looking for a neat, three-decimal DCF price target here, you’ll be disappointed. The smarter frame is “milestone-adjusted ranges.” Right now, Archer sits in the “credible pre-revenue with cash” range. As soon as it becomes “initial revenue with cert momentum”, that range steps up. If/when it becomes “certified fleet with production certificate and recurring routes,” you’re in a different range entirely.

Round numbers like $10 are gravity wells only when nothing changes. Archer’s next year is built around change.

Translation: No, it doesn’t look “stuck” to me.

Sources

Nothing here is investment advice. Do your own diligence and, if appropriate, consult a fiduciary. The air taxi future is exciting—but still an aviation business with aviation timelines.

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