Making Cents Sense

TL;DR UnitedHealth Group (UNH) is limping through one of the toughest resets in its modern history—yet the math for a rebound to $400+ by year-end FY 2026 is straightforward: (1) 2026 Medicare Advantage (MA) repricing plus a +5.06% CMS rate tailwind, (2) OptumRx and Optum Insight grinding out steadier margins, (3) cyberattack costs fading into the rearview, and (4) a historically compressed valuation that doesn’t need to revisit old peaks to re-rate. If adjusted EPS recovers into the $24.5–$27.0 zone in 2026 and the multiple stabilizes at 16–17× , you’re looking at $404–$459 , before dividends. The road isn’t risk-free—utilization, PBM scrutiny, and DOJ/FTC probes are real—but the path is visible. CMS UnitedHealth Group CompaniesMarketCap Where We Are Now (Late 2025 Reality Check) Price & Valuation. UNH closed around $309.87 most recently. At that price, trailing P/E hovers near ~13× , well below its 3-, 5-, and 10-year averages (low-20s). On a cash yield lens, the new $2....

TL;DR Both VYM (Vanguard High Dividend Yield ETF) and SCHD (Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF) are excellent dividend vehicles with similar fees. But as of late August 2025, SCHD offers a higher current SEC yield , a tighter, quality-screened portfolio , and has delivered slightly better long-run total returns —all without a fee advantage for VYM to compensate. I’m downgrading VYM from a core holding to Hold/Underweight , and I’m upgrading SCHD to my preferred large-cap U.S. dividend ETF for new money. (Data and dates throughout noted explicitly; citations follow each load-bearing claim.) Price snapshot: VYM Price snapshot: SCHD What Changed—and Why the Call Today In dividend investing, the edge comes from: What you own (index methodology and factor tilts), What you pay (fees), and What you earn (current yield and the durability of dividend growth). On those three, SCHD now looks better: Income, today: As of August 28, 2025 , SCHD’s 30-day SEC yield is ...