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Bull vs. Bear Case: Can Google Defend Search in the AI Era?

Alphabet’s search business is still growing while artificial intelligence rewrites how people find information. The real investment question is not whether Google survives. It is what survival costs—and whether the new version of Search can remain as profitable as the old one. For most of my adult life, “Google it” has been less a suggestion than a reflex. I do not announce that I am about to use a search engine. I simply open a browser, type half a thought into a box, and expect the accumulated knowledge of civilization to arrange itself helpfully before I lose interest. Google became so embedded in daily behavior that its brand stopped functioning like a company name and started behaving like a verb, a utility, and occasionally a substitute for consulting a qualified physician. Then generative artificial intelligence arrived and asked an impolite question: What if people no longer want ten blue links? What if they want one direct answer? What if they ask ChatGPT, Perplexity, Claude, ...

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