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Showing posts with the label Momentum

Stop Guessing What a Stock Is Worth

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Momentum, Media, and Multiple Expansion in Large-Cap Equities

I used to believe the market was rational. Not perfectly rational—I'm not delusional—but rational enough. Rational in the sense that if you understood a company’s fundamentals—revenue growth, margins, free cash flow, competitive positioning—you could reasonably estimate its value and expect the market to converge toward that reality over time. That belief didn’t collapse overnight. It eroded. Slowly. Quietly. Trade by trade. Because what I started noticing—what I couldn’t unsee once it clicked—was that large-cap stocks weren’t just moving on fundamentals. They were being repriced in real time by something far less tangible and far more powerful: Narrative. And once I understood that, I realized I hadn’t been investing in companies. I’d been investing in stories. The First Time I Noticed Something Was Off It started with a stock that made no sense. On paper, nothing had fundamentally changed. Revenue growth was steady. Margins were stable. Guidance hadn’t materially shif...