There’s a special kind of confidence reserved for people who believe they know what happens next. The market will rally. Rates will fall. AI will dominate. Energy will rebound. Small caps will finally have their moment. Forecasting is seductive. It feels intelligent. Strategic. Empowered. Like you’ve cracked the code. But here’s the uncomfortable truth: forecasts are usually just narratives wearing spreadsheets. And when uncertainty thickens — geopolitics, inflation swings, tech revolutions, policy shifts — forecasts don’t get better. They just get louder. So what if you stopped trying to predict? What if portfolio construction wasn’t about being right — but about being resilient? Welcome to investing without forecasts. The Forecasting Illusion Forecasting makes us feel in control. Humans are wired for pattern recognition. We connect dots, extrapolate trends, and assume continuity. But markets don’t operate on neat linear trajectories. They operate on probability, reflex...
There’s a certain type of investor who lights up when someone says “artificial intelligence,” “biotech breakthrough,” or “disruptive platform.” The room fills with phrases like total addressable market, exponential growth, paradigm shift. There are charts. There is optimism. There are hoodies. And then there are boring businesses. The companies that make industrial fasteners. The ones that distribute cleaning supplies. The regional waste haulers. The manufacturers of gaskets, insulation, gravel, warehouse shelving, pest control services, pipe fittings, asphalt sealant, porta-potties, funeral services, auto parts, and unglamorous replacement components that quietly keep civilization from collapsing. No one makes a Netflix docuseries about a regional concrete company. No one is lining up outside a conference center to hear a keynote on corrugated packaging margins. And yet, boring businesses often make very serious money. Not flashy money. Not headline money. Durable money. Let’s ...