I used to think semiconductor investing was about predicting the future. You know—the big, dramatic calls. Spotting the next NVIDIA before it explodes. Timing the downturn before everyone else panics. Riding the wave, getting out at the top, and then casually pretending it was all part of the plan. Turns out, that’s mostly fantasy. What actually matters—what really separates people who get destroyed from people who quietly win—is something far less exciting and far more uncomfortable: Understanding demand… and watching how capital gets allocated when nobody knows what demand actually is. Welcome to semiconductor cycles. Where certainty goes to die, and spreadsheets pretend to be crystal balls. The Illusion of Predictable Demand Let’s start with demand, because that’s where all the stories begin. Semiconductors power everything—phones, data centers, cars, AI, your fridge if it’s feeling ambitious. So logically, demand should be steady, right? Growing, maybe even predictable. ...
I didn’t fall into the AI infrastructure trade because I’m a visionary. I fell into it the same way most people fall into anything remotely profitable—by realizing I was late, panicking slightly, and then deciding to pretend it was all part of a long-term strategy. Because if you’ve been paying even a little attention, you already know this: AI isn’t just software. It’s not just clever chatbots and eerily confident autocomplete. It’s an industrial operation. A supply chain. A sprawling, power-hungry, silicon-dependent machine that stretches from sand to server racks. And once you see that, you can’t unsee it. Everyone wants to invest in “AI.” But almost no one stops to ask what AI actually runs on. Not philosophically. Not metaphorically. Literally. What does it physically require to exist? That’s where things get interesting. Because the real AI trade—the one that isn’t already overcrowded with hype-chasers—isn’t just about the flashy names everyone throws around at dinner parti...