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Featured post

Nvidia Bull vs. Bear Case: How Much Growth Is Already Priced Into the Stock?

Nvidia may be the most impressive business in the market. That does not automatically make every price a bargain. Here is what investors are really betting on at roughly $224 per share. There are two conversations about Nvidia, and they rarely occur in the same room. In the first conversation, Nvidia is building the computational infrastructure for the most important technological transition in decades. Its chips power the artificial-intelligence systems that every major technology company is racing to develop. Revenue is growing at a rate normally associated with a small software company that just discovered customers, not a corporation already worth more than $5 trillion. Gross margins resemble those of a luxury tollbooth positioned directly across the only bridge to the future. In the second conversation, Nvidia is priced as though the future has already arrived, signed a long-term lease, and agreed to annual rent increases. The company may continue producing astonishing numbers and...
Recent posts

Bull vs. Bear Case: Is SCHD Still Worth Holding?

My Honest Answer After the Dividend ETF Became a Financial Personality Type There was a time when owning a dividend ETF was a quiet decision. You bought a basket of profitable companies, collected the distributions, reinvested them, and went about your life. Nobody made it their entire identity. Nobody posted quarterly dividend screenshots as though Coca-Cola had personally mailed them a handwritten thank-you note. Nobody entered online arguments prepared to defend an exchange-traded fund with the emotional intensity normally reserved for family honor. Then SCHD happened. The Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF has become more than a fund in certain corners of the internet. It is a philosophy, a retirement plan, a community, a security blanket, and occasionally a substitute for having a personality. Mention that growth stocks have outperformed during a particular stretch, and somebody will appear from behind a spreadsheet to announce that they prefer “getting paid to wait.” Mention that di...

Bull vs. Bear Case: Can Walmart Keep Winning in E-Commerce?

For years, Walmart’s relationship with e-commerce reminded me of a very large man trying to squeeze himself into a very small sports car. I respected the effort. I admired the determination. I also wondered whether someone was eventually going to remove a door. Walmart understood that online shopping mattered. The company invested billions of dollars, bought technology businesses, built fulfillment capabilities, redesigned its website, expanded pickup, launched delivery services, introduced Walmart+, added third-party sellers, and generally did everything short of sending an executive to my house to place the order personally. Still, the basic problem remained: Amazon had spent decades teaching consumers to begin almost every product search inside Amazon’s ecosystem. Walmart had stores, trucks, groceries, enormous purchasing power, and enough physical real estate to qualify as a minor geographical feature. Amazon had the digital habit. Habits are difficult to break. Then something chan...

Bull vs. Bear Case: Can Amazon Keep Expanding Profitability?

An investor’s argument with himself about AWS, retail margins, AI spending and whether Amazon’s profit machine is becoming stronger—or merely more expensive Amazon has spent most of its public life teaching investors not to judge it like a normal company. Whenever the profits looked thin, the explanation was that Amazon was investing. Whenever spending looked reckless, the explanation was that Amazon was building infrastructure everyone else would eventually need. Whenever Wall Street asked when the harvest might begin, Amazon planted another forest. Annoyingly, this strategy worked. The company turned an online bookstore into a retail empire, a logistics network, an advertising platform, a subscription ecosystem and the world’s leading cloud-infrastructure business. It built warehouses when skeptics wanted margins, servers when analysts wanted discipline and delivery capacity when investors were still trying to understand why anyone needed a package in less than two days. Now the argu...