SCHD: Balancing My AI Bets


There’s a moment every investor hits where the future gets a little too shiny, a little too irresistible, and a little too capable of melting rational thought like butter under a heat lamp. For most people right now, that future is spelled A-I—big, loud, transformational AI, with enough hype to make the dot-com bubble look like a quiet book club. NVIDIA’s earnings blowouts, Microsoft’s Copilot push, Apple finally deciding to join the game, OpenAI rolling out reasoners that can basically arm-wrestle your portfolio—all of it creates a gravitational pull that says: Put every dollar here or be forgotten.

I get it. I feel that gravitational pull in my bones. I’ve made my share of concentrated bets on the companies that are shaping the future: semiconductor giants, hyperscalers, GPU manufacturers, cloud providers, AI software platforms, LLM infrastructure firms, robotics, edge-AI chip makers, all the way down to tiny firms with market caps so small they could fit inside a vending machine. But even futurists need ballast. Even aggressive investors need counterweight. And even I—even the person who once celebrated an NVIDIA day-trade victory with the kind of joy normally reserved for childbirth—need something that doesn’t require me to pray every quarter.

That’s where SCHD, the Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF, strolls into the room like the calm, level-headed friend who tells you to drink some water before you destroy your life.

SCHD is not exciting. SCHD doesn’t care about the metaverse or quantum computing or GPT-7 or autonomous cars learning to stop at yellow lights. SCHD is the financial equivalent of someone who cooks dinner at home, takes their vitamins, files their taxes early, and still irons their shirts. Which is exactly why SCHD deserves a place inside the portfolio of anyone who likes to moonshot into AI but would still prefer not to live in a van if the market stops clapping.

This is the case for holding SCHD while you chase the future—and how it helps balance AI bets that may or may not behave like responsible adults.


The Problem With AI Mania: Everyone Thinks They’re Early Until They’re Not

Investing in AI right now feels like walking into a casino where the house is temporarily drunk and giving away chips. That’s what happens when you have a once-in-a-generation technological shift coinciding with the lowest global productivity growth in years, national competition narratives, and companies dropping “AI” into earnings calls like it’s fairy dust.

The problem? Every mania looks rational from the inside.

Right now, everyone thinks they’re early. Everyone thinks they are catching the next multi-trillion-dollar wave. And yes, some absolutely will. But no trend—not even one as powerful as AI—goes up in a straight line. There will be winners and losers. Some of today’s darlings will be tomorrow’s footnotes. Some companies will turn out to have business models built on smoke and server bills. Hardware cycles will hit saturation walls. Government regulation will swing like a pendulum. Power grids will groan. Capital expenditures will balloon. Margins will compress. AI workloads will shift. The cost curves will change. And the competitive landscape is already sharpening its knives.

You can’t go 100% AI without accepting that you are tethering your wealth to an industry with the volatility habits of a caffeinated squirrel.

So how do you offset that?

By owning something like SCHD—a disciplined, yield-focused ETF that doesn’t care about shiny objects, market fads, or the number of times Jensen Huang appears on magazine covers.


What SCHD Actually Is: The Adult Supervision Your Portfolio Needs

SCHD tracks the Dow Jones U.S. Dividend 100 Index, which is a fancy way of saying: “Give me the strongest, most reliable dividend-paying companies in America, screened for quality, sustainability, and financial robustness.”

It has four main filters:

  1. Minimum 10 years of dividend payments

  2. Strong free cash flow to debt ratios

  3. High returns on equity

  4. Stable or growing dividends

Then it weights by dividend yield—but not recklessly. It doesn’t overweight dying companies with gigantic, suspicious yields. It filters for financial quality first, yield second.

SCHD holds:

  • Industrials

  • Consumer staples

  • Financials

  • Energy

  • Healthcare

  • Telecom

  • Old-school tech

  • And yes, a sprinkling of modern companies that actually produce free cash flow, unlike half the AI startups burning money like incense

SCHD is the grown-up in the portfolio who shows up with boring but beautiful things like:

  • Dividend durability

  • Earnings stability

  • Lower drawdowns

  • Less volatility

  • Sectors that have been compounding wealth since before the first GPU was even imagined

Contrast this with an AI portfolio, where the companies compete on who can buy the most GPUs before the quarter ends.

SCHD is ballast. SCHD is stability. SCHD is the part of your portfolio that doesn’t throw a tantrum when interest rates move by one-tenth of a percent.


Why SCHD Pairs Perfectly With Aggressive AI Bets

1. AI is volatile. SCHD is not.

AI stocks have already shown a habit of punching investors in the face without warning. A single earnings miss from a megacap can wipe out billions. A slowdown in data-center spending sends shockwaves. Even rumors—just rumors—about export controls can knock 10% off share prices.

SCHD, meanwhile, drops far less in corrections. In the 2022 tech crash, while growth stocks cratered 30–70%, SCHD acted like it had never heard of panic. This matters when you’re stacking high-beta exposure elsewhere.

2. AI stocks reinvest cash. SCHD stocks return it.

Most AI leaders reinvest nearly everything:

  • R&D

  • Data centers

  • Robotics

  • Infrastructure

  • Talent acquisition

  • GPU stockpiling

  • Power contracts

  • Energy buildouts

  • Product development

This is great for growth. It is not great for income.

If you’re going heavy on AI, you need a separate bucket that throws off cash—good old-fashioned, quarterly, predictable, “thank you for not losing your mind” cash.

SCHD gives you that. SCHD gives you the dividend check that AI refuses to send.

The cashflow balance matters.

3. SCHD grows income even when the market is not cooperating

Dividends go up. Yields compound. Payouts rise. SCHD has produced strong dividend growth year after year, meaning your income stream keeps improving regardless of whether AI stocks are having a midlife crisis.

4. SCHD’s top holdings aren’t fighting in the AI war

They are:

  • Selling snacks and drinks

  • Shipping goods

  • Refining fuel

  • Managing insurance policies

  • Running industrial supply chains

  • Manufacturing everyday essentials

  • Keeping the lights on (literally)

  • Producing steady profits even if every AI model went offline tomorrow

AI bets benefit from a hedging layer of companies whose margins don’t move with GPU sales.

SCHD is that layer.


Why SCHD Matters Even More If You’re Bullish on AI’s Long-Term Future

There’s a secret that AI optimists sometimes forget: innovation cycles amplify volatility.

Let’s say you believe—like I do—that AI is going to:

  • Reshape every industry

  • Automate entire job categories

  • Rewrite productivity economics

  • Create new markets

  • Expand GDP

  • Uplift profitability across sectors

  • Transform society

  • And become as foundational as electricity

Great. Even if all of that happens—especially if it happens—the early stages are going to be chaotic.

Technological revolutions do not deliver clean, stable returns. They deliver chaos followed by dominance. They deliver hyperspeed growth followed by brutal shakeouts. They deliver huge winners and even more spectacular losers.

Even the best narratives need padding.

That’s what SCHD provides: a stabilizing force that lets you stay in the AI game longer. Because the best way to miss generational wealth is to panic-sell in volatility. SCHD keeps you anchored.


The Psychological Side: SCHD Helps Prevent Emotional Decision-Making

Investors rarely realize that volatility isn’t just a risk—it’s a behavioral temptation. When you’re 80–90% allocated to high-growth names, every red day feels like a betrayal. Every correction becomes existential. Every headline feels apocalyptic.

SCHD creates mental margin.

When you know a portion of your portfolio is:

  • Throwing off income

  • Holding stable in downturns

  • Less sensitive to rates

  • Grounded in fundamentals

  • Built on decades of performance

…you’re much less likely to make portfolio-destroying decisions on your AI names.

It is much easier to HOLD a volatile stock when you are not ALL volatile.

SCHD enables patience. Patience enables compounding.


SCHD Isn’t Perfect — and That’s the Point

Does SCHD beat the Nasdaq?
No.
Does SCHD beat NVIDIA?
Absolutely not.
Does SCHD beat Meta, Amazon, or Microsoft?
Usually no.
Does SCHD hit 20–30% CAGR?
No.

But SCHD wasn’t built to be the star quarterback. It was built to be the offensive line you never think about—until you imagine what life would look like without it.

SCHD’s job is not to win the race.
Its job is to make sure you finish it.

If your portfolio is a rocket, SCHD is the heat shield.

If your portfolio is a skyscraper, SCHD is the foundation.

If your portfolio is a race car, SCHD is the seat belt.

You don’t notice it when things are going well.
You’re very grateful it exists when they’re not.


How SCHD Fits Into an AI-Heavy Portfolio Structure

Here’s how I personally think about it:

Bucket A: Innovation & AI (High Risk)

  • Semiconductors

  • GPU manufacturers

  • Hyperscalers

  • Cloud AI

  • Robotics

  • AI infrastructure

  • Software automation

  • Data center REITs

  • Edge AI hardware

  • Synthetic data tech

  • Anything with 40%+ revenue growth potential

This is the high-beta, explosive upside bucket—the part of the portfolio that can make you rich or give you heartburn. It’s where the future lives. It’s where disruption happens. It’s where the potential 10x, 20x, and 50x stories hide.

Bucket B: Quality Dividends (SCHD as the Core)

  • Reliable cashflow generators

  • Balance-sheet strong companies

  • Long dividend histories

  • Durable earnings

  • Consistent profitability

  • Companies with real-world demand that doesn’t evaporate in recessions

  • Defensive sectors like staples, utilities, and healthcare

This bucket is where SCHD lives. It’s your ballast. It’s your stabilizer. It’s your “I’d like to retire one day and maybe even sleep at night” allocation.

Bucket C: Cash & Cash Equivalents (Optional)

  • Treasury bills

  • Money market funds

  • Short-duration bonds

Not essential for everyone, but helpful if you like having dry powder during AI sell-offs.

SCHD ties these buckets together by keeping the whole system balanced.


The Real Secret: SCHD Buys You Time, and Time Buys You Compounding

AI will create fortunes. But fortunes come from time in the market—not panic out of it.

The best way to lose money investing in transformative technology is:

  1. Go all in

  2. Get scared during volatility

  3. Sell at the bottom

  4. Watch the winners 10x without you

SCHD keeps you in the game.

It gives you:

  • Income to reinvest into AI dips

  • Stability during corrections

  • A psychological buffer

  • Lower drawdowns

  • A smoother portfolio ride

It buys you patience.
Patience buys you compounding.
Compounding buys you wealth.


The Quiet Strength of Dividend Growth

A lot of people misunderstand SCHD. They look at the yield, shrug, and say, “4%? Who cares?” But the real magic is the growth of those dividends.

SCHD’s payout grows significantly over time. And that growth compounds over years and decades. Meanwhile, if your AI stocks are reinvesting everything into growth, SCHD is quietly handing you cash, quarter after quarter.

Over 10–20 years:

  • SCHD income snowballs

  • AI winners explode

  • AI losers wash out

  • And the combination creates a portfolio that is both resilient and explosive

It’s the pairing that matters.
Not the parts.


SCHD Is the Anti-Bubble: A Counterweight to Tech Euphoria

AI investors need an anchor that lives in a different psychological universe.

AI lives in:

  • Breakthroughs

  • Hype cycles

  • Venture burn rates

  • Rapid disruption

  • Sky-high valuations

  • Margin expansion narratvies

  • Capital intensity

  • Competition

  • Regulatory uncertainty

  • Volatility

SCHD lives in:

  • Steady demand

  • Brand durability

  • Slow-moving sectors

  • Mature businesses

  • Repeatable cash flows

  • Dividends

  • Stability

  • Predictability

  • Long-term dependability

SCHD is everything AI is not—which is exactly why the two belong together.


The Biggest Misconception: SCHD Is Not Anti-Growth — It’s Pro-Durability

Some investors dismiss SCHD because it doesn’t hold the most innovative companies. But SCHD is not anti-growth.

SCHD is simply:

  • Anti-fragile

  • Anti-chaos

  • Anti-hype

  • Anti-emotion

  • Anti-fad

SCHD is pro-longevity.
Pro-cashflow.
Pro-discipline.
Pro-quality.
Pro-survivability.

You need both to build real wealth:
The future and the foundation.


What Happens When AI Truly Hits Productivity Takeoff Mode?

This is the part most people haven’t thought through.

If AI really does:

  • Automate half the tasks humans currently do

  • Dramatically reduce operational costs

  • Increase global GDP

  • Boost corporate margins

  • Accelerate innovation cycles

…then every sector benefits.

Not just the AI companies.
Not just semis.
Not just hyperscalers.

Industrials win.
Consumer staples win.
Healthcare wins.
Finance wins.
Energy wins.
Utilities win.

And SCHD—with its diversified basket of America’s most stable companies—quietly wins with them.

AI is not just a tech story.
It’s an everything story.

SCHD holds the “everything.”


SCHD as an Income Engine That Funds AI Buying Opportunities

Picture this:

Every quarter, SCHD pays you.
Every dip, you redeploy into AI.
Every correction, you buy the future on sale.

SCHD becomes your AI subsidy program.

It turns dividends into dry powder.
It turns volatility into opportunity.
It turns downturns into accumulation cycles.

You aren’t just balancing your AI bets—you’re feeding them.


What Makes SCHD So Attractive Right Now?

1. High starting yield

With yields elevated, new buyers get stronger cash generation right from the start.

2. Value stocks have been beaten down

Rate-sensitive sectors are pricing in pessimism. That’s fertile soil for dividend growth investors.

3. Tech concentration risk is real

The S&P 500 is more concentrated in megacap tech than at any point in history. SCHD is one of the cleanest counterweights.

4. SCHD rebalances annually

It drops companies that weaken. It adds stronger ones. It enforces discipline you don’t even feel happening.

5. Dividend growth is accelerating again

When companies normalize cashflows after high-rate environments, dividend hikes tend to follow.


This Isn’t a Choice Between AI or SCHD — It’s a Strategy That Uses Both

Some investors treat SCHD like it’s the opposite of innovation investing. That’s a mistake. SCHD isn’t a bet against the future—it’s the bedrock that lets you stomach the future.

AI bets will make the headlines.
SCHD will let you stay invested long enough to benefit from them.

The two are partners.
Not rivals.

Growth needs stability.
Stability needs growth.
AI needs ballast.
Ballast needs upside.

Your portfolio doesn’t need either/or.
It needs harmony.


Final Thoughts: Why SCHD Belongs in My AI-Heavy World

AI is the greatest technological opportunity of our lifetime. I’m betting big on it. I want exposure to the companies rewriting civilization. But I also don’t want a single narrative—no matter how powerful—to be the sole guardian of my wealth.

SCHD gives me:

  • Peace of mind

  • Cashflow

  • Stability

  • Durability

  • Sector diversification

  • Behavioral control

  • Better sleep

  • The ability to hold my AI winners longer

SCHD is the counterweight that keeps the rocket from flipping over on launch.

The truth is simple:
The more aggressive I am with AI bets, the more important SCHD becomes.

It keeps me grounded while I chase the future. It keeps me funded while I accumulate. It keeps me calm during volatility. It keeps my portfolio from becoming a science experiment.

AI is where the growth is.
SCHD is where the discipline is.
Together, they balance each other beautifully.

And in a world where the future is rushing forward faster than humans can process, having both the innovators and the steady operators in your portfolio isn’t just smart—it's essential.

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