In the race to revolutionize air travel, few names have sparked as much intrigue and investor enthusiasm as Joby Aviation. Once hailed as the future of urban mobility, Joby and its electric vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) aircraft seemed poised to change everything about how we commute. But as the hype bubble inflates and the launch timeline stretches endlessly into the clouds, it’s time to ask the uncomfortable question: Should we be hitting the brakes?
The Dream That Sold Wall Street
Joby’s pitch was irresistible: clean, quiet, point-to-point air travel in crowded urban areas, available on demand. Imagine hailing a flying Uber during rush hour and skipping the gridlock altogether. Investors swooned. Backed by Toyota and aligned with strategic partners like Delta, Joby went public via SPAC in 2021 and instantly rocketed to multi-billion-dollar valuations.
The company promised not just aircraft, but a fully integrated transportation ecosystem. Think vehicles, software, infrastructure, and operations all bundled into one. This isn’t just aviation, they claimed—it’s the Tesla of the skies.
The Numbers No One Wants to Talk About
Let’s pull back the velvet curtain. Joby’s latest earnings report paints a sobering picture. In Q1 2025, the company posted a net loss of $82 million. That sounds like an improvement from Q4 2024’s $164 million loss, but don’t be fooled: Joby is still hemorrhaging cash. Its free cash flow remains negative to the tune of $139 million, and it reported a paltry $136,000 in revenue over the same period—a staggering 87% drop year-over-year.
That $813 million cash pile? At the current burn rate, it could be gone in less than two years. All this while the company still hasn’t launched a commercial product.
Certification: The Airborne Elephant in the Room
Joby often touts its progress toward FAA certification. The company has reportedly completed 62% of its internal Stage 4 certification work and 43% of FAA requirements. That sounds impressive until you realize what it really means: they’re not even halfway there.
Meanwhile, the FAA has yet to issue its Special Federal Aviation Regulations (SFARs) for eVTOL aircraft, regulations that will determine the legal framework for operations. The agency’s timeline has already slipped, and the delay ripples across the entire industry.
No SFARs? No commercial service. Period.
Safety Issues: More Than Just a Bump in the Sky
In February 2022, one of Joby’s prototypes crashed during a test flight. The National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) report later revealed the incident was caused by a bonding flaw in the propeller blade, which detached mid-flight. This wasn’t just a freak accident—it raised serious questions about Joby’s materials, testing rigor, and manufacturing processes.
When your entire business model relies on flying people over populated areas, a blade failure is more than a PR problem. It’s a red flag waving in front of regulators, insurance companies, and potential customers.
The Market Is Crowded, and the Runway Is Short
Joby isn’t flying solo. Competitors like Archer Aviation, Lilium, and Vertical Aerospace are all in the race, and most of them are making similar promises with similarly shaky financials. Industry analysts estimate that only 5-10% of current eVTOL startups will survive the next five years.
And here’s the kicker: even if Joby nails certification, builds its aircraft at scale, and launches in the U.S., success is far from guaranteed. They need vertiports, revised air traffic control protocols, city-level regulatory buy-in, trained pilots, robust insurance, and a customer base willing to trust flying batteries with their lives.
Oh, and they’ll need to do it all profitably. That part tends to get buried under all the flying car excitement.
The Valuation Disconnect
At its peak, Joby’s market cap approached $14 billion. For context, that’s higher than some regional airlines that actually fly planes, generate revenue, and carry millions of passengers annually.
With virtually no revenue and no certainty on when commercial flights will begin, this valuation starts to feel like a high-altitude hallucination. If we apply even the most generous discounted cash flow models, Joby’s current price assumes flawless execution, accelerated adoption, and zero regulatory hiccups—an investor fantasy, not a financial model.
Policy Winds and Speculative Surges
Joby stock has spiked on news like the Biden administration’s push for American-made drone and eVTOL alternatives to Chinese tech, and even more sharply during Trump’s recent executive orders favoring U.S. defense and aerospace companies.
These policy tailwinds are real, but temporary. Betting on a stock because of political theater is like investing in umbrellas based on a weather forecast three years out. When the news cycle moves on, so too will the speculative capital.
Unproven Business Model
Even if Joby delivers safe, certified aircraft tomorrow, the business model remains theoretical. Urban air mobility (UAM) depends on a host of interconnected factors: traffic flow algorithms, charging infrastructure, fleet management, demand elasticity, and weather adaptability.
And let’s not forget noise complaints, zoning issues, NIMBYism, and lawsuits. Flying above city skylines sounds cool until one crashes into a parking garage, or disrupts a neighborhood’s peace.
Insider Behavior: Who’s Selling?
In the past 12 months, Joby insiders have sold millions of dollars worth of stock. While some level of insider selling is normal, it raises eyebrows when a company hasn’t shipped a single commercial product. If the people building the company are cashing out, maybe it’s time for investors to ask why.
The Psychology of Innovation Overreach
We’ve seen this movie before: Theranos, Nikola, WeWork, and to some extent, even Tesla during its Model 3 production hell. Hype attracts capital. Capital justifies valuations. Valuations attract more hype.
But when timelines slip and the cash runway shortens, reality reasserts itself. Disruption is sexy. Engineering, regulation, and logistics are not. Joby’s biggest challenge isn’t the tech—it’s execution under pressure.
Time to Be Skeptical
To be clear, Joby isn’t a scam. They have a real team, serious investors, and working prototypes. But that doesn’t make it a good investment at today’s prices. Caution isn’t cynicism; it’s the rational response to a company priced for perfection with zero margin for error.
We should root for Joby’s success as aviation enthusiasts and environmentalists. But as investors? It’s time to engage the brakes, reassess the trajectory, and consider whether this bird will actually take flight—or just flap expensively in circles.
Final Descent: What Comes Next?
Joby plans to launch commercial services by 2026. That’s ambitious, especially given ongoing certification delays. Watch the Q2 2025 earnings closely. If losses widen or certification progress stalls, expect another stock correction.
In the meantime, expect more volatility, more flashy headlines, and more breathless promises. Just remember: the higher the altitude, the thinner the oxygen—and the harsher the crash when things go wrong.
Joby may yet redefine aviation. But for now, investors might want to trade their eVTOL dreams for a parachute—just in case.